By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Hen Tune of the Day
Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Bull Rock Rd, Essex, New York, United States.
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In Case You May Miss…
(1) Kennedy on the poll in Iowa.
(2) Pilots informed to not rush (“problematic traits”).
(3) Gold : Now could be a very good time to promote it.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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The Constitutional Order (Revolt)
“Supreme Courtroom casts doubt on obstruction costs in opposition to a whole bunch of Jan. 6 rioters” [Los Angeles Times]. “The court docket’s conservatives questioned whether or not the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which was geared toward company accounting fraud, can be utilized extra broadly to prosecute those that impede “any official continuing,” together with Congress’ 2021 certification of President Biden’s election victory…. Greater than 1,200 rioters had been arrested for the Jan. 6 break-in on the Capitol….. Most had been charged with assaulting the cops who had been on obligation or with disorderly and disruptive conduct. Some had been additionally charged with carrying harmful or lethal weapons. A couple of hundred had been additionally charged with in search of to impede an official continuing.” Extra: “At challenge is the way to interpret two clauses within the legislation. It states that it’s a crime if somebody ‘corruptly — alters, destroys, mutilates, or conceals a report, doc, or different object, or makes an attempt to take action, with the intent to impair the article’s integrity or availability to be used in an official continuing; or in any other case obstructs, influences, or impedes any official continuing, or makes an attempt to take action.’” • The Solicitor Common says the 2 clauses stand alone (my studying); the Chief Justice says the second depends upon the primary.
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, April 5
★ Right here this Friday’s RCP ballot. Trump remains to be up in all of the Swing States (extra right here), main with one exception: PA. I’ve highlighted it once more, (1) as a result of BIden is now up there, and (2) it’s an outlier, has been for weeks. Why isn’t Trump doing effectively there? (I’ll work out a greater manner to do that, however for now: Blue dot = transfer towards Biden; purple dot = transfer towards Trump. No dot = no change (presumably as a result of state polls should not that quite a few so removed from election day).
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Trump (R): “‘It’s clearly strategic’: Why Trump stored attacking judges’ households” [Politico]. “In three completely different court docket instances over the previous six months, judges imposed gag orders that restrained the previous president from vilifying witnesses, court docket workers and others concerned within the proceedings in opposition to him. In every case, Trump responded by verbally attacking not solely the prosecutors and judges themselves, but additionally their members of the family. ‘It’s clearly strategic,’ mentioned Ty Cobb, who served as a White Home lawyer beneath Trump however has turn out to be a frequent critic of the previous president. ‘His assaults are designed round his conventional strategy to delegitimizing the proceedings.’” • I don’t prefer it. I don’t very similar to Decide Merchan’s daughter working for Mother’s Genuine Campaigns both, a Democrat consulting agency. One can say that father and daughter are unbiased brokers. One may additionally say that father and daughter are nodes in the identical community.
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Trump (R): “Trump’s Fundraising Reveals Reliance on Oil Sector, Rich Donors” [Bloomberg]. ” Donald Trump relied on a small cadre of donors to contribute a hefty portion of his March fundraising haul, displaying the early success of his pivot to rich benefactors to finance his presidential bid…. The $23.6 million from deep-pocketed donors accounted for a considerable a part of the $65.6 million he and the Republican Social gathering raised that month, the most recent disclosures to the US Federal Election Fee present… In the meantime, President Joe Biden has amassed a report struggle chest for this level in an election yr. Exterior teams supporting Biden, led by his foremost tremendous political motion committee, the Future Ahead PAC, have now pledged $1 billion to assist him.” • That’s actual cash.
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Trump (R): Not asking for my vote (or the vote of lots of conservatives, both):
Trump says he is “not an enormous fan” of FISA, however he nonetheless informed “MAGA Mike Johnson” and firm to “do what you need” when it comes to reauthorizing the warrantless surveillance as a result of “they put lots of checks and balances on,” and since Trump is presently forward within the polls pic.twitter.com/9X31qTfr9Z
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) April 13, 2024
Trump (R): Actually not asking for my vote:
Make polio nice once more https://t.co/pCjQVYeR68
— Molly Jong-Quick (@MollyJongFast) April 14, 2024
A lot for MMR! Here’s a dialogue of this piece in New York Journal; Trump is quoted precisely, nevertheless it’s unclear whether or not he means (a) “Covid vaccine mandates” or (b) “vaccine mandates” usually. If (a), Trump was simply sloppy in his wording, not unknown for him. But when he’s pandering to the anti-vax faction in RFK’s base, he means (b). We will see.
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“Younger Voters Are Extra Involved With the Economic system. That’s Dangerous for Biden” [Bloomberg]. “‘The President is preventing to decrease prices for younger People — forgiving scholar debt, decreasing well being [sic] and eliminating junk charges,” Seth Schuster, a Biden marketing campaign spokesperson, mentioned by e-mail.” • I don’t know why Democrats deeply consider that “preventing” and “preventing for” are an efficient trope, however apparently they do. They simply can’t give it up! Anyhow, a helpful chart:
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Biden (D): “It’s Not the Economic system. It’s the Pandemic” [The Atlantic]. “In our lifetime, COVID posed an unprecedented risk in each its overwhelming scope and severity; it left most People unable to guard themselves and, at instances, at a loss to grasp what was taking place. That meets the scientific definition of trauma: an amazing expertise by which you might be threatened with critical bodily or psychological hurt…. [T]he emotions that that [the early pandemic] expertise ignited are nonetheless very a lot alive. This will make it tough to rationally assess the state of our lives and our nation…. One treatment is for leaders to encourage remembrance whereas offering correct and reliable details about each the previous and the current. Within the early days of the pandemic, President Donald Trump mishandled the disaster and peddled misinformation about COVID. However with 2020 a traumatic blur, Trump appears to have turn out to be the beneficiary of our collective amnesia, and Biden the repository for lingering emotional discontent…. [I]n the previous two years, [Biden], like nearly everybody else [ha ha], has largely tried to proceed as if everyone seems to be again to regular. In the meantime, American minds and hearts merely aren’t prepared—whether or not we understand it or not…. By prompting People to recollect what we endured collectively, paradoxically, Biden may assist free all of us to extra absolutely expertise the current.”
Biden (D): “Joe Biden’s empathy was his superpower in 2020. Can he discover it once more in 2024?” [Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times]. “Some days it feels as if that kindly Uncle Joe has been changed by a cranky outdated pol irritated at voters who don’t give him credit score for a robust economic system…. However a refrain of Democratic strategists say it’s the fallacious message, primarily as a result of it’s lacking the factor that was as soon as Biden’s political superpower: empathy. ‘You’ll be able to’t inform individuals they’re higher off than they assume they’re,’ mentioned Mark Mellman, a veteran political advisor. ‘It’s essential to acknowledge their ache. In any other case it comes throughout as a sign that you just don’t perceive their lives.’ ‘I wouldn’t go on the market and extol the miracle of the Biden economic system,’ mentioned David Axelrod. ‘The message wants to begin with empathy and concentrate on costs, which is the problem that issues most to voters,’ mentioned Stanley Greenberg, who helped Invoice Clinton win the presidency in 1992. In any other case, he mentioned, ‘individuals simply get angrier and angrier.’ Through the 2020 marketing campaign, when People had been reeling from the human and financial prices of the COVID-19 pandemic, Biden spoke typically of his private historical past — his upbringing in a household of modest means, the dying of his first spouse and child daughter in a 1972 freeway crash, the 2015 dying of his son Beau — and his feeling of kinship with others who suffered losses.” • Properly, Biden’s obtained a whole bunch of 1000’s extra to really feel kinship with now!
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Biden (D): “Joe Rogan reveals when he thinks the Democratic Social gathering will kick Biden to the curb” [FOX]. “‘Could. I believe [Biden]’s obtained till Could,’ Rogan mentioned, stunning his visitor. ‘I really feel like proper round Could they’re going to drag him.’ ‘And Newsom is available in,’ Schulz added. Rogan mentioned, ‘I believe he simply has well being issues after which the nation understands, and Newsom is gonna have his assist absolutely and Kamala is gonna be like ‘I don’t even wish to be president, I’m cool with being vice chairman.” ‘So Newsom runs with Kamala?’ Schulz requested. ‘Yeah, I believe so’ Rogan mentioned, ‘I don’t assume they’ll pull Kamala,’ suggesting she isn’t a legal responsibility for now ‘so long as they’ll hold her quiet.’” • I don’t know if Kamala can smile and grit her tooth for that lengthy, although. I doubt it.
Newsom (D): “Gavin Newsom Can’t Assist Himself” [The Atlantic]. “The final paragraph: “Being round Newsom, you sense an ongoing tug between boyish and sober impulses. He can fall closely on nostalgia—and RFK quotes—whereas asserting himself as an agent of the longer term. He reveres the old-school pols who mentored him whereas striving to be ingenious and distinct. It’s critical, Newsom informed me, ‘to take dangers and never be reckless, however hold making an attempt issues.’ To be unique however restrained when essential. ‘I don’t wish to be spinoff; could be as shut as he involves codifying a management philosophy: the Roger Bannister concept of life [Bannister “didn’t know that he couldn’t”] tempered by the commemorated precept of ready one’s flip, if it ever comes.” • An apparent beat sweetener. The query is, why a beat sweetener now?
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Kennedy (I): “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be on Iowa poll” [WHBF]. “Impartial candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. met the requirement of 500 signatures to get on the Iowa poll. Organizers say almost a thousand individuals attended an occasion yesterday in West Des Moines. Solely 650 there signed the shape.” • Commentary:
🚨🚨 ANOTHER ONE!! IOWA!! 🚨🚨#KennedyShanahan2024
Examine your state and acquire info on how one can help @RobertKennedyJr achieve poll entry!
👇👇👇👇 https://t.co/VIeNKID9uj pic.twitter.com/IHnB97VOeZ
— Jamel Holley (@jamelholley) April 13, 2024
Kennedy (I): “Robert F Kennedy Jr claims Trump had requested him to be operating mate” [Guardian]. • Ugh. They hate Kennedy as a lot as they hate Trump. Commentary:
President Trump calls me an ultra-left radical. I’m soooo liberal that his emissaries requested me to be his VP. I respectfully declined the supply.
I’m in opposition to President Trump, and President Biden can’t win.
Judging by his new web site, it seems like President Trump is aware of who…
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) April 15, 2024
Kennedy (I): Shanahan asking for my vote, although she most likely doesn’t understand it:
Group Kennedy is a mycelium community for peace, love and hope.
✅ Iowa Poll https://t.co/bTYWSbZKtq
— Nicole Shanahan (@NicoleShanahan) April 13, 2024
See NC right here on “mycelial mats” (2012).
Kennedy (I): “The Candidacy and Claims of RFK Jr.” [Rajiv Sethi]. “Kennedy believes with a excessive diploma of subjective certainty many issues which might be prone to be false, or at finest stay unsupported by the very proof he cites. I talk about one such case beneath, pertaining to all-cause mortality related to the Pfizer vaccine. However the proof is ambiguous sufficient to create doubts, and the failure of many mainstream retailers and consultants to acknowledge these doubts fuels suspicion within the public at massive, making individuals receptive to exaggerated claims in the other way. Moreover, the overall themes that come up in Kennedy’s rhetoric—the corrupting affect of cash in politics, the folly of army adventurism overseas, the smugness and failures of elite opinion, and the necessity for open and sturdy debate—will ring a bell with many citizens throughout the ideological spectrum. It’s an uphill marketing campaign however I don’t assume that it’s doomed to failure.” • Relying on how failure and success are outlined.
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“The Senate, Home, and White Home Might All Change Arms in November” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “For those who needed to guess on what is going to occur this yr, the chances favor a Republican takeover of the Senate and a Democratic takeover of the Home… By no means within the historical past of the Democratic-Republican duopoly relationship again to the final election previous to the Civil Conflict have each the Home and Senate flipped in reverse instructions. Sometimes the tides that pull as soon as chamber pull each. However lately a brand new geographical focus of the events has given Republicans an enormous Senate benefit in some cycles that resists nationwide traits… A double-flip of Home and Senate would guarantee continued divided management of the federal authorities and, given the presently excessive polarization of the events, very probably extra gridlock. There’s an opportunity of one thing much more outstanding taking place in November, nevertheless: a triple flip of Home, Senate and the White Home, leaving no stone unturned. That has truly occurred as soon as in American historical past: in 1952, when the New Deal period emphatically ended with Dwight D. Eisenhower breaking a 20-year Democratic successful streak in presidential elections, whereas Republicans additionally flipped each chambers of Congress (which Democrats had narrowly maintained management of in 1950 regardless of shedding lots of seats).”
“It’s starting to look so much like 2016” [The Hill]. “The disconnect between what’s widespread with the leisure media and the Democratic Social gathering and what’s widespread with voters performed a major position within the 2016 election. Democratic Social gathering officers trapped themselves in an echo chamber, trusting the recommendation and assurances of individuals all in the identical socioeconomic rung. They really believed their very own press and overpassed voters’ issues. The truth is, they disregarded voters’ issues outright, even after it grew to become obvious Clinton was failing to attach with historically pro-Democratic voting blocs. They didn’t marketing campaign as if there was any query of who would win the election. Clinton didn’t even go to Wisconsin — not even as soon as. Consequently, Trump’s victory caught mainly everybody within the Democratic Social gathering and media without warning. Now, in 2024, Trump has a protracted street forward of him, particularly contemplating that he, like Biden, polls terribly. Trump’s marketing campaign evokes little confidence. The previous president is on the market hawking sneakers, bibles and fragrance, all whereas his surrogates panhandle on-line for donations to repay his authorized payments. However have you learnt what else Trump did lately? On March 28, he flew up from Florida to attend the wake of slain NYPD Officer Jonathan Diller, who had been shot and killed throughout a site visitors cease. Diller is survived by his spouse and their one-year-old son. Throughout Diller’s wake, throughout city, Biden and his marketing campaign had been placing the ending touches on a glitzy, star-studded marketing campaign fundraiser, the place they yukked it up later that night with Stephen Colbert and Lizzo. For a mere $100,000, attendees may have their footage taken with Biden and former Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Invoice Clinton.” • Similar cope with Trump at Chick-fil-A in Atlanta. Bear in mind the individuals who cheered his motorcade when Trump drove by on the best way to his arraignment?
Our Famously Free Press
This one is de facto enjoyable to look at with the sound down:
White Home Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson John Kirby says Biden ‘does not consider’ Iran assault ‘wants’ to escalate into wider struggle. https://t.co/fMFW9KFQjp pic.twitter.com/42LA1RIiIY
— Sky Information (@SkyNews) April 14, 2024
The facial expressions! The physique language!
Republican Funhouse
Hmm:
👀 Teamsters make one other transfer towards GOP, give $5,000 to Sen. Josh Hawley https://t.co/uEWSwENf0P
— Abigail Jackson 🇺🇸 (@abigailmarone) April 14, 2024
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Maskstravaganza
I don’t know why Trump’s Surgeon Common displays better integrity and braveness and both of Biden’s two CDC Administrators, however right here we’re:
Some query why I publish pics of myself masking (or vaxxing), given the unhinged responses I typically get.
1) I attempt to actually present how I navigate a really busy and journey heavy life 2) I need the immune compromised to know they aren’t alone and haven’t been forgotten about.🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/D0oumVGvK8
— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) April 13, 2024
Sequelae: Covid
“American Air Pilots Cite ‘Vital’ Leap in Security Points” [MSN]. “The union for American Airways Group Inc. pilots warned members to be vigilant amid a ‘important spike’ in safety- and maintenance-related issues on the service. The Allied Pilots Affiliation cited ‘problematic traits’ in a memo despatched April 13, together with situations of instruments like a hammer being left in airplane wheel wells and an growing variety of collisions between plane whereas they’re being towed. The union, which represents about 15,000 pilots, implored its members to keep away from speeding whereas doing their jobs and to not be pressured into doing something unsafe…. The union cited different issues, resembling growing situations of kit being left in sterile areas the place planes pull into gates and defective paperwork documenting when broken plane are ferried to a different location.” • Seems like lack of government operate resulting from (repeated) Covid an infection, to me. See right here at NC for one pilot’s view.
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Lambert right here: I used to be starting to assume that each one my information was drying up… Then most of them got here by means of, unexpectedly. A number of stars at the moment!
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new at the moment; all others should not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a stage far above valleys beneath Trump. Not an excellent victory. Be aware additionally the realm “beneath the curve,” in addition to peaks. That space is bigger beneath Biden than beneath Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if inconsistently.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I believe in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to verify. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I favored the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually onerous to sport.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Appears like a really gradual leveling off to a non-zero baseline, to me. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it seems like “endemicity,” however to me it seems like one other tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Nonetheless down.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates completely.
[11] Appears just like the Instances isn’t reporting dying information any extra? Perhaps I want to return to The Economist….
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial Manufacturing in america flattened year-on-year in March 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in February. Utilities had been down 3.1% and mining declined 2% whereas manufacturing rose 0.8%.”
Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US plunged 14.7% month-over-month to an annualized fee of 1.321 million in March 2024, reversing from an upwardly revised 1.549 million stage in February and effectively beneath forecasts of 1.48 million.”
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The Economic system: Issues are going nice:
At a Brooklyn Pawnshop, Clients Are Flooding In to Promote Gold
“Individuals are utilizing gold as an ATM they by no means had,” mentioned Gene Furman, proprietor of King Gold & Pawn and Empire Gold Patrons. At Furman’s fifth Avenue retailer, the variety of individuals coming in promoting and pawning gold jewellery is…
— Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) April 14, 2024
(I assume individuals solely promote gold after they anticipate onerous instances, or are experiencing them.)
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As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 39 Concern (earlier shut: 41 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 16 at 1:57:16 PM ET. World Conflict III is dangerous for enterprise.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is nice.) • Hen flu not a priority?
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired at the moment.
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From GS:
GS writes: “Hanging carnivorous Pitcher Plant (specimen from Phillipines), Flecker Gardens, Cairns QLD Australia.”
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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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