By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
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Chicken Music of the Day
American Woodcock, Nebraska Missuonary Baptist Church, Macon, Alabama, United States. Beautiful night time sounds, however I’m struggling….
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In Case You Would possibly Miss…
(1) Bragg’s concept of the case eventually.
(2) Pennsylvania, the Jewish vote.
(3) Carl Schmitt, Nazi authorized theorist
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, April 19:
Right here this Friday’s RCP polling. Trump remains to be doing very properly in nearly all of the Swing States (extra right here), main with one exception: PA. Overlook all of the arithmetic, and take a look at PA as a take a look at of the Trump marketing campaign’s fundamental competence. What are they doing to repair this? (I’ll work out a greater solution to current this, however for now: Blue dot = transfer towards Biden; crimson dot = transfer towards Trump. No dot = no change (presumably as a result of state polls should not that quite a few so removed from election day).
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Trump (R) Merchan) “Trump felony trial wraps for the day after opening statements and first witness” (dwell weblog) [CNN]. Recall that Trump’s alleged information violations are all misdemeanors until they had been a part of an “different crime,” during which case they develop into felonies. Nevertheless, neither Bragg’s Indictment nor his Assertion of Details recognized that “different crime” (as I confirmed right here). In Bragg’s opening assertion, he did that. His concept of the case: “Trump, alongside together with his legal professional Michael Cohen and David Pecker, the previous chairman of the Nationwide Enquirer’s mother or father firm AMI, ‘fashioned a conspiracy … to affect the presidential election…. ‘It was election fraud, pure and easy,’ [prosecutor Matthew] Colangelo informed the jury. The scheme was three-pronged, Colangelo mentioned: the trio sought to assist Trump kill adverse tales about Trump – a course of often known as ‘catch-and-kill’ – publish favorable tales about Trump and publish adverse tales about Trump’s political opponents. He laid out three totally different situations the place the trio allegedly conspired to forestall dangerous details about Trump from turning into public previous to the 2016 election.” • So election fraud, presumably on the State stage (and never the opposite prospects, state tax legislation, and Federal election legislation). I would wish to see the statute to make sure, however this appears very weak to me, even weaker than the idea that the one actual property magnate in New York who ever engaged in puffery was Trump. It appears to me that it’s attempting to outlaw oppo (granted, a darkish artwork, however not unlawful). And by way of Democrart moralstanding, how is that this any totally different than getting most main venues to suppress the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer, and suborning 50 spooks to put in writing a letter saying it was Russian disinformation? Make it make sense, as the youngsters say lately.
Trump (R) (Merchan): “How giant elements of Trump’s trial are taking part in out within the shadows” [Politico]. “Behind the scenes, a maze of arcane guidelines and archaic methods has made it just about unattainable for the media — and the general public — to entry key motions and pretrial rulings in actual time. New York’s docketing practices haven’t been up to date for the digital age. The decide, Justice Juan Merchan, has imposed insurance policies that drive days and even weeks of delays earlier than essential paperwork develop into public. After they do, they’ve been topic to a heavy, court-imposed redaction course of. And Merchan often makes use of e mail to speak with Trump’s protection legal professionals and the prosecutors from Manhattan District Lawyer Alvin Bragg’s workplace. That’s led to a ballooning set of off-the-book messages which are shielded from the general public. The result’s that probably the most consequential chapters of American historical past is being drafted with lacking pages and invisible ink. ‘Particularly in a case like this, the place 48 hours can flip information into historical past, that’s not acceptable,’ mentioned Stephen Gillers, a professor at New York College legislation faculty who focuses on authorized ethics. He described the redaction requirement particularly as an obstacle to public entry. ‘The decide, with a accountability to make the general public knowledgeable, ought to have made it simpler,’ Gillers mentioned, ‘and so ought to Bragg.’” • How handy.
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Trump (R) (Engoron): “New York decide units new situations on Trump’s civil fraud bond” [Axios]. “New York Decide Arthur Engoron on Monday accepted the $175 million bond former President Trump posted to enchantment his civil fraud case, however the decide imposed a number of new situations to make sure ample money funds stay accessible…. Whereas Engoron allowed the bond to face, Trump and Knight Specialty Insurance coverage Firm agreed to satisfy a number of new necessities, per a spokesperson from the New York State Lawyer Normal’s workplace. These embrace that Knight Specialty Insurance coverage Firm will retain “unique management” of the $175 million account, and the corporate and Trump will present a month-to-month account assertion certifying that there are ample money funds for the bond. Knight Specialty Insurance coverage Firm has agreed to designate an agent of course of in New York The settlement between the corporate and Trump can also’t be amended with out courtroom approval.”
Trump (R) (Chutkan): “How Trump might win on the Supreme Courtroom even when his broad immunity argument is rejected” [NBC]. “At challenge within the high-stakes showdown Thursday is whether or not Trump’s felony costs over his try and overturn the 2020 election outcomes ought to be dismissed based mostly on a broad declare of immunity. Even when the courtroom rejects that daring argument, it might nonetheless ship the case again to Washington-based U.S. District Courtroom Decide Tanya Chutkan for extra proceedings on whether or not a few of Trump’s actions are insulated from prosecution With the case, initially scheduled for trial in March, already stricken by delays, such a ruling would additional imperil the possibilities of any trial being concluded earlier than November’s election.
Trump (R): “Did Donald Trump Simply Get Fortunate With His NYC Felony Trial Juror Pool?” [Newsweek]. • Sadly, I can’t get previous the paywall now. The thought is that the jury is stuffed with professionals, who will subsequently apply their important pondering abilities and actually dig into the element. Nicely, perhaps (and all it takes is one holdout). That mentioned:
Lawyer: Are you able to be obejctive?
Me: Completely!
Lawyer: *Selecting up huge stack of papers* I’ve a few of your tweets right here.
Me: Superior!
Lawyer: It says, “Donald Trump is a fetid, rotting, mango.”
Me: Yep!
Lawyer: And right here you mentioned, “The one distinction between Donald…
— Machine Pun Kelly 🇺🇦 (@KellyScaletta) April 19, 2024
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Kennedy (I): “Kornacki: Low Curiosity within the 2024 Election a Vulnerability for Trump” [RealClearPolitics] “What the Trump of us have been hoping is RFK, third-party candidates, they gobble up some votes and Trump doesn’t must get to 50%. However look what occurs after we add RFK’s title to the combo. All of the sudden, we have now a brand new chief. Joe Biden, 39%; Donald Trump, 37%. There’s Kennedy getting 13%. In different phrases, we’re seeing by a greater than 2:1 margin, it’s Trump voters who’re flipping over to Kennedy on this state of affairs, not Biden voters. You see it proper right here. 15% of Trump voters, after we add RFK’s title to the combo, they go to RFK. Solely 7% of Biden voters. There’s a giant change proper there.” • This shouldn’t be shocking. “Change vs. extra of the identical.” Biden = “the identical.” Each Trump and Kennedy are “change” — Kennedy maybe much more than Trump.
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PA: “Summer season Lee’s main race exams fallout for critics of the US’s Gaza coverage” [Al Jazeera]. “It was not a well-liked stance to take. Tensions had been operating excessive. And but, on October 16, lower than two weeks into Israel’s struggle in Gaza, United States Consultant Summer season Lee joined different progressive Democrats in calling for an instantaneous ceasefire within the Palestinian enclave…. However Lee’s important view of Israel’s struggle in Gaza has made her a goal within the upcoming US election season. On Tuesday, Lee faces a aggressive main in her district, as a fellow Democrat seeks to unseat her for being too ‘excessive.’ Patel has seized on criticism that Lee’s rhetoric has been reckless. After the struggle broke out on October 7, 40 rabbis and cantors within the Pittsburgh space launched a letter criticising Lee’s response. In March, they launched a second letter accusing Lee of ‘divisive rhetoric’ that they ‘perceived as overtly anti-Semitic.’ Patel has echoed that condemnation, highlighting the chance of anti-Semitism within the shadow of the struggle. However Lee has stood her floor, arguing that criticism of Israel will not be the identical as anti-Semitism. ‘Now we have to be clear that no authorities, no nation is above critique,’ Lee mentioned. ‘The way in which that [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu has performed this struggle, it’s indefensible.’” • Presumably AIPAC is airdropping palettes of money into the district.
PA: “The Jewish vote might play an enormous function in 2024. Pennsylvania is about to place up an early take a look at” [NBC]. “Conversations with greater than 30 political strategists, activists and voters outlined how that [post-October 7] rigidity has put Jewish voters in an unfamiliar spot forward of the 2024 elections: on the entrance strains of the combat for management of the White Home and Congress. Nowhere is that extra obvious than in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most important Jewish inhabitants — about 300,000 voting-age Jews in a state President Joe Biden gained by roughly 80,000 votes in 2020. What’s extra, the congressional district that features Squirrel Hill encompasses a main Tuesday that’s among the many first electoral exams of sentiment on each side of the battle in Gaza and issues over rising antisemitism within the U.S. Democratic Rep. Summer season Lee, a ‘squad’-aligned progressive important of Israel’s dealing with of the struggle and one of many first lawmakers to name for a cease-fire final 12 months, will face Bhavini Patel, an Edgewood Borough Council member who has painted Lee’s advocacy as dangerous to Biden’s re-election probabilities and out of step together with her district.” And: “Most Jewish voters in Squirrel Hill — and nationally — align with the Democratic Get together. A Pew Analysis Heart survey launched this month discovered 69% of Jews leaning Democratic, whereas 29% aligned Republican. However Republicans aren’t on the lookout for an enormous defection. GOP strategists and Republicans concerned in Jewish outreach expressed confidence that Democratic divisions over Israel will assist transfer a small however doubtlessly vital variety of Jewish voters into their camp in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona. They pointed to surveys displaying President Donald Trump’s improved efficiency amongst Jews in 2020, in contrast together with his 2016 race, as proof of a gradual shift that would proceed.
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On third events:
Look, I do know we dwell in a Goldfish Society that forgets its total world each quarter-hour.
Nevertheless, it takes one second to do a Google search of phrases like “McCarthy 1968,” “Reagan 1976,” “Kennedy 1980,” “Buchanan 1992.”
Folks do not must be this silly. They select to be. https://t.co/yq3XHcXbV2
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) April 19, 2024
Democrats en Déshabillé
“The GOP’s Professional-Russia Caucus Misplaced. Now Ukraine Has to Win.” [Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic]. “It’s not too late, as a result of it’s by no means too late. No outcomes are ever preordained, nothing is ever over, and you may at all times have an effect on what occurs tomorrow by making the precise decisions immediately.” • Wowsers. Applebaum’s profession.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Down on Regulation” [Boston Review]. “Schmitt presciently grasped that the event of state intervention within the capitalist financial system inevitably transforms the authorized system by producing open-ended norms, obscure delegations of authority to administrative companies, and heightened bureaucratic and judicial discretion. And he understood the conflicts between these authorized tendencies and conventional liberal notions of the legislation, and the methods during which these conflicts create countless invites for the unbridled train of energy. As an alternative of contemplating how we would guarantee that the interventionist state maintains constancy to the indispensable attainments of liberal legality, nevertheless, Schmitt merely thought of these tendencies to be proof for the prevalence of a right-wing dictatorship freed from authorized restraint.” • Nicely value a learn.
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Elite Maleficence
Rolling up sleeves and scrubbing my arms for the subsequent HICPAC assembly:
EDITORIAL: It’s Time To Roll Again All Mitigations In Hospitals: Gloves, Masks, Goggles, Clear Flooring, New Needles, Clear Scalpels, Every part. If We Need To Win The Struggle On Immunity Debt, Docs Should Do Their Obligation And Infect Everybody With Every part All The Time. pic.twitter.com/2GRZGc2Kz8
— The Vertlartnic (@TheVertlartnic) April 19, 2024
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TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others should not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a stage far above valleys below Trump. Not an ideal victory. Be aware additionally the realm “below the curve,” apart from taking a look at peaks. That space is bigger below Biden than below Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I feel in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to affirm. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal knowledge, if any. I appreciated the ER knowledge, as a result of it appeared actually exhausting to recreation.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it seems to be like “endemicity,” however to me it seems to be like one other tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Uptick.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates completely.
[11] Appears to be like just like the Occasions isn’t reporting demise knowledge any extra? Possibly I would like to return to The Economist….
Stats Watch
The Financial system: “United States Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index rose to +0.15 in March 2024 from an upwardly revised +0.09 in February, barely exceeding market expectations of +0.09. It marked the best studying since final November….”
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Delivery: “The 100-year-old railway Mexico hopes will rival the Panama Canal” [The Week]. “The revival of the railway line signifies that a ship might “unload its cargo from one aspect, ship it by rail throughout the Isthmus, and reload it again onto one other ship on the opposite aspect”, thereby offering a brand new route by way of which worldwide freight might movement, defined Mexico Information Every day…. The $2.8 billion undertaking has been “buoyed” by Mexico’s more and more essential buying and selling relationship with the US; the nation ‘surpassed China this 12 months to develop into the US’s high buying and selling accomplice’, mentioned The Every day Upside. Provided that America’s relationship with China stays ‘decidedly frosty’, Mexico can ‘really feel safe in its new place for some time longer’. Droughts are additionally placing strain on the canal. Final 12 months the most important transport route, which depends on contemporary water for its operation, confronted its worst drought on document, inflicting vital delays.” • Fascinating, although I’d prefer to see some numbers. A Panamax isn’t that huge, however how lengthy is a doublestack prepare that takes all its containers?
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Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 34 Worry (earlier shut: 31 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 39 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 22 at 12:48:27 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Chicken flu not a priority, apparently. And I hate even to go right here, however the “Tribulation Temple” class is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = no matter temple it’s that the Crimson Heifer loons need to construct, then the Rapture Index is making a name, and it’s saying “Don’t fear in regards to the Crimson Heifers.”
The Gallery
Flat:
Inside with Egyptian Curtain, 1948Get extra Matisse 🍒 https://t.co/NoY1e00LNZ pic.twitter.com/rl3tSYUBLr
— Henri Matisse (@artistmatisse) April 20, 2024
Information of the Wired
“The ‘blem wit’ error messages” [The Register]. “Most of them had been verified in a method or one other; nevertheless I as soon as collected the pleasant however unverified ‘Shut her down, Clancy, she’s a-pumping mud.’… In these days, although, most error message had been rather less artistic. The explanation? Reminiscence was costly. So a few of them had been terse. I imply rlly trs… My private favourite remains to be one from the early 90s. And it was about as trs as they get: “blem wit”….. Sadly, the very drawback that triggered the error message had the unlucky aspect impact of screwing up the flexibility of DOS to put in writing to the display. So solely part of the error message was really written to the display. What was that error message? ‘There’s a drawback with the Reminiscence Management Block for the shell.” • Oh,
“Webster’s Dictionary 1828: Annotated” [JSTOR]. “Noah Webster’s roles within the formation of the early United States had been manifold: editor of the Federalist Papers, proprietor and editor of the primary American each day newspaper, textbook writer, a founding father of Amherst School, promoter of the primary US copyright legal guidelines, and writer of one of many first works on epidemiology, utilized by nineteenth-century medical faculties. However his 1828 dictionary is what he’s remembered for, coming at an incredible private price: twenty-one years invested, and a lifelong battle with debt. In his preface to the three-volume work, he writes of his hopes that the dictionary will end in his fellow Individuals’ “enchancment and their happiness; and for the continued enhance of the wealth, the educational, the ethical and non secular elevation of character, and the glory of my nation.’” • Webster edited the Federalist Papers?! What an incredible true reality. And I’m wondering what his epidemiology e book has to say about airborne transmission.
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SV:
SV writes: “Western Cape, South Africa, Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens.”
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