Since Taiwan’s first democratic presidential election in 1996, nationwide elections have centered on nationwide identification and the island’s future relationship with China. At current, nonetheless, the vast majority of Taiwan’s inhabitants largely identifies as Taiwanese, contrasting sharply with lower than 3 p.c figuring out as Chinese language solely. This shift in identification, amongst different elements resembling China’s therapy of Hong Kongelicited a extra centrist method from the presidential candidates within the 2024 elections, pivoting their marketing campaign focus towards home coverage.
The international coverage platforms of all candidates aligned on defending Taiwan’s sovereignty whereas sustaining the established order and rejecting China’s “one nation, two techniques” unification formulation. The traditionally pro-independence Democratic Progressive Occasion (DPP) softened its stance, whereas the Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih and the Taiwan Individuals’s Occasion (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je advocated for a extra accommodating stance towards China however stopped wanting showing overly pleasant.
Within the 2024 election, marked by a sturdy 72 p.c voter turnout, the DPP’s Lai Ching-te secured the presidency with 40 p.c of the votes, however Hou with 33 p.c and Ko with 26 p.c trailed not too far behind. Ko based the TPP in 2019 as a substitute for the long-established KMT and DPP. He appeared to have attracted a number of the youthful voters, a demographic that has historically supported the DPP, particularly present President Tsai Ing-wen. This probably displays the frustration of Taiwan’s youthful era with the institution events as they’re immediately affected by Taiwan’s hardest coverage challengestogether with sustainability, housing coverage, and upward mobility.
All three candidates dropped at the forefront home points, resembling unaffordable housing, stagnating wages, an getting older inhabitants, vitality insecurity, and unsustainable entitlements, which stem from Taiwan’s high-income lure. Nevertheless, the candidates had various approaches to addressing and funding these challenges. As an illustration, Lai needs to advance the Tsai administration’s coverage of phasing out nuclear vitality by 2025, whereas the KMT and TPP insist on extending the lifespans of Taiwan’s nuclear reactors to satisfy Taiwan’s rising vitality wants.
These inter-party divisions and disagreements are important as a result of regardless of the DPP profitable the presidency for an unprecedented third time period, it misplaced its eight-year majority within the Legislative Yuan (the DPP received 51 seats, the KMT 52, the TPP eight, and pro-KMT independents two). The Lai administration will thus have a weaker mandate to enact its insurance policies. Notably, with not one of the events bagging the 57-seat minimal required to go laws, coverage initiatives will inevitably take longer to goif in any respect.
The election thus uncovered rising generational and socioeconomic fault strains. By permitting the DPP to realize management of each the manager and legislative branches in 2016 and 2020, voters anticipated the social gathering to not solely safeguard Taiwan’s autonomy but in addition make Taiwan a extra affluent and wholesome society. This final result of not awarding the DPP the legislative majority probably displays the voters’s dissatisfaction with DPP governance together with demand for stronger authorities accountability and tangible reforms.
A lot of Taiwan’s home points are options of its high-income lure that shall be tough to resolve with out robust political will or partisan cooperation. Taiwan’s healthcare system, regardless of its affordability and accessibility, is financially unsustainable, additional exacerbated by a quickly getting older inhabitants. The three events might want to agree on find out how to safe the required monetary and labor sources.
All these challenges immediate the query: Can Taiwan’s political events rise above their variations to ship on their guarantees? Beijing, for one, is perhaps glad to see a extra polarized and ineffective Taiwanese authorities.
Three many years of democratic governance in Taiwan has solely widened the hole between Taipei and Beijing. When Tsai Ing-wen entered workplace in 2016, Beijing closed official communication channels, continued isolating Taiwan in worldwide society, enticed 10 international locations to change diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China (Nauru made the change merely two days after the 2024 election), and escalated its gray-zone warfare. But Beijing’s instant response to the 2024 election has been surprisingly muted.
This deviation from the norm would possibly point out that Beijing has began to acknowledge the boundaries of mere coercive measures in gaining the favor of the Taiwanese individuals. Moreover continued financial coercion, gray-zone warfare, and disinformation campaigns, Beijing should recalibrate its technique to make its Taiwan coverage work. The approaching years will take a look at the capabilities of each Beijing and Taipei in managing cross-strait relations.
In the meantime, Taiwanese society has grown more and more skeptical of the USA, which has been enhancing its political relationship with Taiwan however with out enhancing Taiwan’s worldwide standing or providing it tangible financial advantages. Amid rising tensions with China, the USA has devoted appreciable political capital to its relationship with Taiwan via arms gross sales and protection packages. Nevertheless, the elevated variety of official visits to Taiwan has been perceived as largely symbolic.
Though an preliminary bilateral commerce settlement was signed in June 2023 underneath the United States-Taiwan Initiative on Twenty first-Century Commerce, it doesn’t present Taiwan with actual market entry to the USA. Furthermore, U.S, insurance policies aimed toward containing China’s financial and technological growth, particularly within the semiconductor business, proceed to negatively influence Taiwan, which depends closely on the data and communication know-how sector for financial progress. Consequently, Taiwan’s semiconductor corporations really feel squeezed by U.S. coverage.
The subsequent 4 years will take a look at Taiwan’s resilience as a democracy within the face of geopolitical rivalry, local weather disaster, diminishing socioeconomic prospects, and an getting older society whereas being led by a divided authorities. The dearth of a celebration majority within the Legislative Yuan will enhance authorities accountability however on the threat of a legislative impasse. This might additional complicate Taiwan’s efforts to push via reforms and steadiness its pursuits between China and the USA. Whereas the stakes are excessive for each China and the USA, they’re even greater for the individuals of Taiwan.
This weblog submit was initially printed by Asia Unbound, a publication of the Council on Overseas Relations and is reprinted with permission. The article originated from a current dialogue by Professor Syaru Shirley Lin within the Winston Lord Roundtable Collection on Asia, the Rule of Legislation, and U.S. Overseas Coverage, the place she debriefed the current Taiwan elections.
