He identified that Iran’s strategic choices are all set by means of the excellent chief and the Islamic Progressive Shield Corps (IRGC), now not by means of the president.
“Expect continued rigidity in US relations and regional policies,” Azizi stated.
General, the consequences of Raisi’s demise “would not be fundamental or a decisive blow to the system”.
It could impact intra-hardliner pageant however “not the strategic direction” of the Islamic Republic in overseas or home politics, Azizi stated.
However, Raisi’s premature passing has left Iran’s ruling Islamists with a shortage of applicants thought to be charismatic plethora to exchange him as president and develop into the supremacy candidate to be successful Khamenei.
“There is no denying that the death of Raisi was a shock to the system,” stated Mehran Haghirian, director of regional tasks for the Bourse and Bazaar Base, a London-based assume tank.
Raisi used to be “expected to serve for another five years or until Khamenei dies”, and proceed directly to develop into the nearest excellent chief, he stated.
“Not even the IRGC is ready today with a groomed candidate,” Haghirian stated.
“There are dozens like them in the current system to replace. But none are ready, all have even less charisma, and there is no consensus around any one figure today,” he stated.
A fresh candidate would emerge “in a matter of days, but the chosen figure will likely lead to further internal divisions”, Haghirian stated.
02:07
Iranian president dies in helicopter collision, elevating questions on who will likely be nearest ruler
Iranian president dies in helicopter collision, elevating questions on who will likely be nearest ruler
Azizi stated factions throughout the hardline camp have been already competing for the position of speaker of parliament.
“Now, this rivalry will extend to the presidency, with different factions vying for dominance,” Azizi stated, stating that the fresh presidential election in July would come amid ancient low society participation.
Best 8 according to cent of eligible citizens within the capital Tehran took section in fresh parliamentary elections, so mobilising citizens throughout the nearest 50 days to vote for a fresh president “poses a significant challenge”, he stated.
Raisi used to be one among 3 applicants believed to be into consideration to develop into Iran’s excellent chief.
To begin with, Raisi used to be thought to be a trifling puppet of the hardliners who ensured his victory within the 2021 presidential election by means of banning fairly average fighters from contesting on flimsy gardens.
However following fresh indications by means of Khamenei that he disapproved of his son Mojtaba’s candidacy at the gardens that hereditary management is un-Islamic, Raisi had emerged as a contender upon the demise of the Ayatollah.
The one alternative believable candidate for excellent chief is Alireza Arafi, who’s recently competing to develop into chairman of the Meeting of Mavens, which can appoint the fresh excellent chief when Khamenei in the end dies.
Alternatively, Arafi isn’t considered as a viable candidate for the Iranian presidency, as he is thought of as to be missing air of secrecy and has now not prior to now gained backup for the publish of president from the dominant hardline lobbies in Tehran.
“For a long time now, the succession discussion in Iran has been that it will be either Mojtaba or someone else,” stated Vali Nasr, a former senior assistant at the USA Environment Section.
Upcoming Khamenei instructed that he most well-liked any person else, “the only name in the ‘someone else’ category was Raisi”, he stated.
“Now there is no name in that category,” stated Nasr, who’s now a educator of global affairs and Heart East research on the Johns Hopkins College Faculty of Complex Global Research in the USA.
Quickly, there can be a race to spot fresh names for “if not Mojtaba”, he stated.
“That is a fight to watch” as it took quite a lot of years to “build up Raisi and presidency was his pathway to being supreme leader”, Nasr stated.
