The famed quip “There are three sorts of lies: Lies, damned Lies, and statistics” will be up to date for the trendy period with “confusion, damned confusion, and opinion Polls” within the wake of the 2024 State of Southeast Asia surveys of the area’s elites printed this month by a suppose tank in Singapore
The annual report by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute has sparked some alarmist headlines. “Majority in Southeast Asia would select China over the U.S., survey suggests,” Al Jazeera went with. Nikkei Asia intoned: “Majority of ASEAN individuals favor China over U.S., survey finds”. Guess what Chinese language media ran with? “Survey reveals Southeast Asians favor China over U.S”.
Was this really what the survey revealed? Sure, however provided that one takes solely a cursory flick via its pages to repeat and paste some regional averages.
The headlines have been largely generated by replies to query 31, an annual function of the survey, which asks respondents: “If ASEAN have been pressured to align itself with one of many strategic rivals, which ought to it select?”
As a regional common, 61.1% of all Southeast Asian respondents stated they’d choose the USA over China within the 2023 ballot. This 12 months, nevertheless, solely 49.5% chosen the U.S..
The 50.5% who stated they’d choose China over the U.S. represents a 1 share level distinction, however the drop in U.S. favorability. In a survey through which pollsters interviewed 1,994 individuals, the distinction between selecting China over the U.S. comes right down to the opinions of about 20 individuals – maybe not a dependable measure of how a area of 660 million individuals regard crucial geopolitical concern of the day.
The survey calculates the typical figures for ASEAN as a complete by equal proportion per nation, so tiny Brunei, which reliably opts for China over the U.S., will get the identical weighting because the way more populous and geopolitically-important Philippines, which is constantly pro-U.S.
The query itself asks whether or not ASEAN, not nationwide governments, ought to choose between the U.S. and China.
It’s exhausting to think about such a weighty geopolitical determination might ever be taken by consensus in a 10-nation bloc whose members can’t agree on take care of the civil battle in Myanmar. This makes the regional common nugatory as a gauge because it presupposes an inconceivable consequence.
Assist for China?
A better have a look at the swing in assist for China raises different questions. If China was rising in popularity, as replies to query 31 implied, we’d anticipate to see China’s reputation rise throughout the survey. However that’s not the case.
Query 38: “How assured are you that China will ‘do the proper factor’ to contribute to international peace, safety, prosperity, and governance?” discovered that 29.5% of all respondents have been “assured” or “very assured”. However, for the 2024 survey, it declined to 24.8%.
To query 22: “In your view, which nation/regional group is probably the most influential financial energy in Southeast Asia?” Some 59.5% stated China, down once more from final 12 months. And of those that stated China is crucial financial accomplice, 67.4% stated they have been apprehensive about China’s rising affect, once more a better share than final 12 months.
And on query 24: “In your view, which nation/regional group has probably the most political and strategic affect in Southeast Asia?” the proportion who stated China, 43.9%, was up from final 12 months. However 73.5% who stated so have been apprehensive about Beijing’s rising regional political and strategic affect.
Early within the survey, round half of all respondents expressed concern that ASEAN is changing into more and more disunited, one thing this survey makes clear. Dig down into the questions, and one finds that sentiments within the area are equally break up between the 2 superpowers.
On the core query ”If ASEAN have been pressured to align itself with one of many strategic rivals, which ought to it select?” the regional common tilts in favor of China. However that regional common was massively skewed by a number of international locations.
Within the 2023 survey, some 58.9% of Laotians picked the U.S. over China. This at all times appeared to be a really odd end result, as a result of Vientiane is certainly one of Beijing’s closest allies, and since round 80% of Loatian respondents favored China over the U.S. within the 2021 and 2022 surveys. The 2023 outcomes have been one thing of an anomaly.
The 2024 outcomes have been additionally closely skewed by Bruneians, who aren’t very influential on regional geopolitics. The variety of respondents choosing the U.S. declined from 45% in 2023 to 29.9% in 2024. The share of Thais who would choose the U.S. over China fell from 56.9% in 2023 to 47.8%.
In an consequence that doubtless displays anger at Washington’s assist for Israel within the Gaza Struggle, the proportion of Malaysians selecting Washington over Beijing dropped from 45.2% to 24.9% over the previous 12 months, whereas these in Indonesia plunged from 46.3% to 26.8%. Subsequent 12 months, when the 2025 ballot is printed, the outcomes might simply be completely different.
ASEAN’s divide
A majority from Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand stated they’d choose China over the U.S.. A majority from Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam selected the U.S. over China. By state, the regional bloc is equally break up 5-5.
U.S. coverage makers would possibly take some consolation in the truth that the pro-U.S. stalwarts in ASEAN have been constant all through the years. On this 12 months’s survey, 61.5% of Singaporeans selected the USA over China, in comparison with 61.1% in final 12 months’s survey. Some 79.0% of Vietnamese stated Washington over China, in comparison with 77.9% final 12 months. And 83% of Filipinos have been pro-U.S., up from 78.8% final 12 months.
However the pro-Chinese language camp fluctuates. Laos swung out of it in final 12 months’s survey. Indonesia and Malaysia solely turned China-over-America within the 2022 survey, however they have been beforehand U.S.-over-China.
Cambodians are likely to swing backwards and forwards. Bruneians have been the one group to constantly choose China over the U.S. since these surveys started.
Three Southeast Asian states – Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam– are solidly pro-U.S. Just one is constantly pro-China (Brunei), and the others fluctuate annually.
This really ought to give Beijing extra trigger for concern than Washington. America’s stalwarts aren’t for turning. Beijing’s backers seem fickle and flighty.
David Hutt is a analysis fellow on the Central European Institute of Asian Research (CEIAS) and the Southeast Asia Columnist on the Diplomat. He writes the Watching Europe In Southeast Asia e-newsletter. As a journalist, he has coated Southeast Asian politics since 2014. The views expressed listed here are his personal and don’t mirror the place of RFA.
