The Home seat representing southwest Washington state is amongst Republicans’ high targets to develop their slim majority within the 2024 elections — if they’ll nominate a candidate who can win.
Former GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler represented the world for over a decade, however a 12 months after voting to question then-President Donald Trump, she misplaced her 2022 GOP main to Joe Kent, an Military veteran who had challenged Herrera Beutler from the correct.
Kent then misplaced the final election to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in a marketing campaign that centered on Kent’s right-wing ties — even because the GOP’s Senate candidate, Tiffany Smiley, carried the identical district by 8 factors. (Smiley misplaced to the Democratic incumbent, Patty Murray.)
Kent is working for the seat once more this 12 months, hoping for an reverse consequence, however Camas Metropolis Council Member Leslie Lewallen is hoping to take that spot on the final election poll for herself. She is pitching herself as a Republican who’s extra palatable to the district’s voters.
“Joe Kent had his alternative in 2022. He misplaced. He’ll lose once more, by a good wider margin,” Lewallen informed NBC Information throughout a visit to Washington, D.C.
She added that she worries that if Kent and Gluesenkamp Perez are on the final election poll once more, “we might lose this seat for a really very long time and we might lose the bulk within the Home of Representatives.”
“There’s frankly simply an excessive amount of at stake. We must always by no means have misplaced that seat,” Lewallen mentioned.
A tricky path to beat Kent within the main
Throughout the nation in 2022, Republicans blamed the absence of a “crimson wave” on poor candidate high quality, pointing to Kent as one instance.
Kent questioned the integrity of the 2020 election, known as Jan. 6 defendants “political prisoners” and attended a “Justice for J6” rally organized by one in every of his advisers. The Related Press additionally investigated his ties to far-right teams in the course of the marketing campaign.
However Republicans within the state and nationally say Kent’s place on the final election poll this 12 months is nearly a foregone conclusion, with Lewallen’s marketing campaign struggling to outline a transparent path to ending forward of him within the top-two main.
“Joe Kent has the assist of all seven county Republican Events in [the district] and in addition the Washington State Republican Get together,” Kent’s marketing campaign mentioned in an announcement, including, “Grassroots and mainstream voters within the district are unified in assist of changing the acute Democrat incumbent with widespread sense conservative, Joe Kent.”
One nationwide Republican strategist mentioned that Lewallen “looks like an excellent candidate with a pleasant bio, however the query is can she win the first? From what we’ve seen of her marketing campaign to this point, it doesn’t look possible.”
Within the first three months of 2024, Kent raised simply over $225,000, whereas Lewallen raised simply over $193,000. That is a more in-depth unfold than the final quarter of 2023, however Kent continues to be outraising Lewallen. And each paled compared to Gluesenkamp Perez, who raised over $850,000 in the identical interval.
In the meantime, the Washington state Republican Get together determined to formally endorse Kent final 12 months.
“That is politics,” mentioned the celebration’s chair, Jim Walsh, including, “Nothing is ever sure, sure, sure, however Kent’s path seems fairly clear.”
Above all, Walsh mentioned, Republicans within the state and the district needs to be centered on beating Gluesenkamp Perez.
He pointed to what he thought needs to be the most important situation within the race: “Dissatisfaction with Marie Perez’s observe document” in Congress.
“Whereas Perez has a really efficient PR marketing campaign and operation and will get numerous picture ops, the actual fact is her voting document is admittedly not consultant of what Washington’s third’s values are,” Walsh added.
For his or her half, Democrats are satisfied that Kent will probably be their opponent in November and hope to run the same marketing campaign to the one which defeated him in 2022.
“Joe Kent will probably be my opponent within the common election, and I invite Republicans and conservatives who can’t abdomen Joe Kent’s offended, harmful, divisive view of the world to assist my marketing campaign as a substitute, like they did in 2022,” Gluesenkamp Perez mentioned in an announcement.
Marching ahead
However Lewallen is not mounting her marketing campaign alone. She’s backed by lots of the strategists who labored on Smiley’ marketing campaign in 2022, in addition to Smiley herself.
Successful for Ladies, a nationwide group that backs feminine Republicans working for workplace, has endorsed Lewallen, too. The group’s tremendous PAC has spent tens of millions of {dollars} supporting feminine GOP candidates in current elections.
“The selection right here is straightforward: If Leslie is our nominee, Republicans win again this seat. Joe Kent has already proven he can not win, and nominating him successfully ensures two extra years of Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a liberal extremist who’s out of contact with the voters of this district,” WFW Motion Fund government director Danielle Barrow mentioned in an announcement.
Barrow added that the group raised over $40,000 for Lewallen in a single occasion within the first quarter of this 12 months and it already has extra fundraisers deliberate for the second quarter.
To this point this 12 months, a couple of GOP Home candidates who misplaced swing seats in 2022 have failed in repeat runs. In Ohio, J.R. Majewski, who was looking for a rematch in opposition to Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, dropped out forward of this 12 months’s main amid a cascade of unflattering information tales and different revelations.
And in North Carolina, far-right candidate Sandy Smith misplaced the GOP main this 12 months to retired Military Col. Laurie Buckhout, who was backed by an out of doors group tied to Home Republican management. Smith, the GOP nominee in 2022, misplaced to Democratic Rep. Don Davis.
However each race is completely different.
“Joe Kent has the assist of all seven county Republican Events in [the district] and in addition the Washington State Republican Get together,” Kent’s marketing campaign mentioned in an announcement, including, “Grassroots and mainstream voters within the district are unified in assist of changing the acute Democrat incumbent with widespread sense conservative, Joe Kent.”
Lewallen mentioned she discovered Kent’s 2022 marketing campaign “very irritating” as a result of he “didn’t discuss something essential to southwest Washington.”
“The complete marketing campaign centered on this Washington as a substitute of our Washington,” she mentioned. “I wish to transfer ahead. I feel most of People wish to transfer ahead. They wish to see what’s damaged get mounted. They wish to elect members of Congress who’re there to control and to not play the performative politics.”
