Current international coverage reporting has spent what would possibly appear to be an absurd period of time speaking about pandas. In November, the Nationwide Zoo in Washington, D.C. returned its pandas to China after greater than 50 years of internet hosting the bears within the U.S. capital. The 4 remaining pandas in the USA – all on the Atlanta Zoo – are additionally slated to return to China someday this yr. This might have left the U.S. with none of the furry giants for the primary time since 1972.
Fortuitously, every week after the trio of bears left the Nationwide Zoo, American panda-lovers obtained excellent news. Chinese language President Xi Jinping, throughout his assembly with U.S. President Joe Biden in San Francisco, introduced that China would ship new pandas to the USA. “We’re able to proceed our cooperation with the USA on panda conservation, and do our greatest to satisfy the needs of the Californians in order to deepen the pleasant ties between our two peoples,” Xi declared. It has since been confirmed that the pandas will come to the San Diego Zoo.
This marks a sudden change in angle from the Chinese language authorities, which in recent times has been refusing to increase lease agreements for pandas dwelling in the USA and different nations crucial of the Chinese language authorities. This motion, together with the surprisingly cordial tone of the summit, marked a notable shift in Xi’s strategy to the China-U.S. relationship. The 2 nations have spent the final decade more and more ratcheting up their rhetoric, commerce conflicts, and technological competitors. Xi’s choice signifies that one thing has modified within the post-COVID, post-Ukraine period – in order that he now believes China must engender a extra amicable Sino-American relationship.
American zoos started dropping their pandas in April 2019, with the Memphis Zoo’s pair of pandas leaving after 20 years in residence. The San Diego zoo supplied a heartfelt goodbye to its closing two pandas in the identical month, ending 25 years of its involvement within the panda conservation program. As talked about above, the Nationwide Zoo in Washington bid farewell to its three large pandas in November 2023.
Equally, the Edinburgh Zoo in the UK misplaced its resident pandas in December 2023. Australia will each see their remaining pandas depart the Adelaide Zoo in early 2024. Japanese panda lovers had been particularly tearful as they lastly mentioned goodbye to XiangXiang, a Tokyo-born panda who had develop into extraordinarily in style following her start in 2017. XiangXiang returned to the Chinese language panda reserve in Sichuan in February 2023, as did three extra of Japan’s pandas who had been dwelling at a park outdoors of Osaka.
As of as we speak, there isn’t any indication that the Chinese language authorities is prepared to increase any of the loans. None of those nations has obtained a promise that China will ship them new pandas – aside from the USA.
Panda diplomacy established itself as a singular type of diplomacy throughout World Battle II Soong Mei-ling, then first girl of the Republic of China, gifted two pandas to the USA in November of 1941 as thanks for supporting China throughout the struggle in opposition to Japan. In 1949, when Mao Zedong proclaimed victory and the Kuomintang (KMT) led by President Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan, the Chinese language Communist Occasion gained sole management over the world’s provide of untamed pandas. Throughout the Mao period, the Individuals’s Republic of China gave 24 pandas as presents to 9 nations, most notably together with the pair of pandas given by Mao to the USA following President Richard Nixon’s 1972 go to. In distinction to as we speak, these had been true presents, with no expiration date.
When Deng Xiaoping took energy in China, one of many coverage modifications he applied was the top of gifting pandas. Any new pandas would as a substitute be leased, with agreements structured in order that any offspring born to pandas overseas would even be required to return to China. This variation marked the change from pandas being a present to being a part of a quid professional quo. Nevertheless, there was nonetheless a broad understanding that pandas had been a beneficial tender energy instrument, and Deng continued to mortgage pandas to nations that China wished to enhance relations with.
Whereas pandas had been an important asset for Chinese language diplomacy throughout the period of reform and opening, the current flip towards a extra aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy beneath Xi might clarify why China refused to proceed sharing its nationwide animal with the world. Wolf warrior diplomacy has develop into the shorthand time period to check with a extra combative type of diplomacy that grew in reputation after Xi took energy in 2012. Examples embody Chinese language diplomats publicly insulting international leaders, abruptly leaving conferences, issuing private threats, or shouting at international diplomats.
Peter Martin, writer of “China’s Civilian Military: The Making of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy,” pointed to the sensation amongst Chinese language political elites that the “Century of Humiliation” (a interval of roughly 100 years during which China was repeatedly invaded by Japan and Western nations) is over and China is now ascendent as a way to clarify this extra brazen type of Chinese language diplomacy.
It’s also obvious that Chinese language diplomats who have interaction in wolf warrior diplomacy can shortly be promoted up the political hierarchy, as Xi and different get together elites appear to be followers of this extra aggressive type of international relations. Chinese language diplomats as we speak typically appear to be performing extra for a home political viewers than they’re really endeavoring to enhance relations.
So how did panda diplomacy mesh with wolf warrior diplomacy? The reply may be present in understanding what panda diplomacy is as we speak, and what it isn’t. Are pandas given as presents as a way to engender constructive views of China in chosen nations, are they an actual bargaining instrument within the Chinese language diplomatic arsenal, or are they one thing else?
In recent times it appears that evidently China’s panda coverage has shifted. Steve Tsang, head of the China Institute on the London-based Faculty of Oriental and African Research, described the current change in a Washington Submit articlesaying, “China now requires nations which have been given the privilege of internet hosting pandas to be pleasant to China, and in the event that they’re not doing so sufficiently, then pandas might be withdrawn.”
For instance, in 2017 a zoo in Finland was supplied two panda bears after Finnish President Sauli Niinisto confirmed that his nation would adhere to the One China coverage. As one other instance, the 2 pandas that departed the UK in 2023 had been initially loaned to Edinburgh in 2011 as the capstone marking the signing of an oil deal between the 2 nations.
Moreover, the ceremony hooked up to panda diplomacy has signaled that Xi expects extra dedication from nations that want to obtain pandas. World leaders are anticipated to make the request for pandas in particular person, and often are required to pose for pictures with Xi throughout the ceremony marking the arrival of the pandas to their new house. These actions and necessities all display how Xi sees China’s pandas as a instrument to extract what he needs from Western leaders.
So why is the USA getting extra pandas when different nations which have had a rocky relationship with China as of late are nonetheless dropping theirs? In contrast, when Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited China in November 2023, he and Xi mentioned the matter of pandas at a state dinner marking the primary go to by an Australian chief to China in seven years. The go to got here on the finish of an extended course of and sequence of agreements which have the aim of repairing and stabilizing the Sino-Australian relationship.
Nonetheless, regardless of Albanese saying “I might on behalf of Australia’s children and households wish to see pandas keep a presence in Australia,” China has not signaled that Australia is assured to obtain any new pandas. Talks with the Adelaide Zoo are nonetheless ongoing, though zoo representatives and Australian authorities officers stay hopeful.
One thing should be distinctive about the USA within the eyes of China.
Whereas the summit in San Francisco was a serious enchancment for China-U.S. relations, the connection remains to be extremely combative and fraught with disagreements. On the Biden-Xi summit, the pair of leaders agreed to cooperate on synthetic intelligence security and anti-drug efforts, in addition to to determine extra direct strains of communication between navy leaders designed to stop miscommunications and battle escalation. Nevertheless, the pair nonetheless had many factors of disagreement.
For instance, Xi criticized U.S. export controls within the ongoing semiconductor battle, whereby the Biden administration has labored to dam China from creating or importing superior processors. In doing so, Biden has demonstrated the USA’ distinctive capacity to considerably sluggish Chinese language expertise improvement. Whereas the earlier commerce struggle begun beneath the Trump administration was largely seen by specialists as hurting U.S. customers greater than Chinese language business, the Biden administration has reminded Xi that there might be actual and tangible penalties to antagonizing the USA.
One other trace at why Xi sees the China-U.S. relationship as so vital lies within the best sticking level throughout the summit: the Taiwan query. Xi took a pointedly laborious line even throughout a summit designed to enhance tensions, telling Biden and the U.S. delegation that China was dedicated to unifying the island. Chinese language officers informed reporters that Xi had requested Biden to “cease arming Taiwan, cease interfering in China’s inside affairs and take actual actions to honor U.S. dedication of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence.’”
Biden has signaled a number of occasions that the USA will defend Taiwan if China decides to assault, and U.S. help for Taiwan is the only largest impediment to Xi attaining the best international coverage victory for a Chinese language chief in modern historical past. It’s clear that Xi has discovered from the struggles of Russia in Ukraine, the place U.S. weapons and funding have been essential for the Ukrainian struggle effort. This might be much more true in Taiwan, which has far fewer allies than Ukraine. If the USA is unwilling to assist in Taiwan’s protection, it’s doubtless that no one will.
Biden has been aggressive in his indicators that he helps Taiwan. Whereas the State Division continues to stroll again what he says, Biden has repeatedly mentioned that the USA will use navy drive to defend the island nation if China assaults. Moreover, he has drifted from longstanding U.S. coverage concerning Taiwanese independence, saying“Taiwan makes their very own judgments about their independence…that’s their choice.”
Lastly, Biden has put quite a lot of effort into strengthening American alliances in Asiawhich all have the aim of combating China’s regional affect. After 4 years of isolationism beneath Trumpthe assertiveness of Biden is probably going forcing Xi to reevaluate the chance that China can retake Taiwan with out the U.S. navy – and its regional allies – getting concerned.
The ultimate piece of the puzzle is the Chinese language home state of affairs. Xi’s administration – starting in 2012 – has benefited from a robust and constantly rising economic system. Nevertheless, as we speak Xi is coping with a post-COVID economic system that’s persevering with to wrestlepunctuated with crises just like the still-ongoing housing bubble and the looming demographic points. Whereas Xi entered workplace brazen and filled with confidence that he would make China a worldwide superpower, a real rival to the USA, he now appears to have had his confidence shaken.
In that mild, a few cute pandas are indicators that Xi is not fairly so fascinated about competing with the USA straight. What might appear to be a comparatively inconsequential reward is as a substitute signaling that we’re getting into a brand new period of China-U.S. relations, the place a beforehand brazen and outspoken Xi is seeking to be barely much less confrontational. Time will inform if this development holds, however it’s a promising improvement amidst a decade of continuous escalations and growing tensions.