Yves right here. Putin volunteered in a contemporary interview that it used to be peculiar that Raisi took his disastrous go back and forth in an impaired American helicopter, which because of sanctions can be tough to guard, past the alternative two helicopters that made the similar go back and forth have been rather unused, well-kitted out, Russian made birds.
Via John Helmer, the longest regularly serving international correspondent in Russia, and the one western journalist to direct his personal bureau distant of unmarried nationwide or industrial ties. Helmer has additionally been a mentor of political science, and an guide to govt heads in Greece, the US, and Asia. He’s the primary and simplest member of a US presidential management (Jimmy Carter) to ascertain himself in Russia. At first revealed at Dances with Bears
It used to be a annoyed Sherlock Holmes who instructed Dr Watson: “You will not apply my precept,” he mentioned, shaking his head. “How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?”
That used to be in 1890 within the Arthur Conan Doyle tale, “The Sign of Four”.
Software of this Holmes rule of detection and deduction to the cases of the accident of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter on Would possibly 19 is now generating the inescapable conclusion that Raisi, Iranian International Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and the six others on board their airplane have been killed via the movements of 1 or either one of the pilots, who meant their very own suicide and the killing in their passengers.
This seems to not had been the belief of the Iranian Breeze Power commanders who paid a condolence seek advice from to the households of the pilots on Would possibly 21, two days nearest their deaths.
However with the shed terminating while via the Iranian Military’s Normal Body of workers of its 2d document at the disastrous accident, the removal of climate, system failure, exterior missile assault, on-board bomb, digital sabotage, and pilot navigational error is now whole. At the side of the primary Normal Body of workers document, the clear Teheran tv interview of Raisi’s important of group of workers, Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili, and the observer testimony via phone from the accident scene via the Tabriz ayatollah, Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem, the proof excess is that the extremely skilled important pilot, Colonel Seyed Taher Mostafavi (top symbol, proper) made 3 errors — the primary, to fly into the cloud attic nearest he ordered the others to climb above; the second one, to not locate on his radar and alternative tools the bright mountain peaks in alike proximity to his gliding route at 2,200 metres; and the 3rd, to accident in horizontal orientation, no longer vertically nostril first.
Hattricks are uncommon, however they’re by no means errors, by no means unintentional.
To make amends for the forensic main points as they have been first of all showed for the disastrous incident, learn this piece of Would possibly 27.
For a abstract of the contradictory media reporting from Iranian army and alternative native assets, assembled via an anti-regime supply in London, click on to learn. Israeli fabrication and disinformation at the incident is of decidedly decrease attribute than the Iranian propaganda; click on to match.
OVERVIEW OF THE HELICOPTER CONVOY ROUTE
Supply: https://thecradle.co/
SATELLITE VIEW OF THE CLOUD COVER OF THE ROUTE AND CRASH SITE
Supply: https://www.iranintl.comIran World, an anti-regime medium based totally in London and Washington, financed via Saudis, concluded its protection on Would possibly 23 with an account of contradictory media stories. This piece reached negative conclusions, and thus far it has no longer been up to date.
Within the order information company document, revealed past due on Would possibly 29, the Military investigators concluded “based on sampling and tests conducted on the wreckage and parts of the helicopter, as well as the distribution pattern of the debris from the main body, the occurrence of an explosion caused by sabotage during the flight and moments before the impact with the mountainside is ruled out, the report said. Additionally, investigators carefully examined the vast majority of the documents related to the maintenance of the helicopter and found no issue that could have played a role in the accident, it added.”
“The report also revealed that the helicopter’s capacity in terms of the maximum standard load it could carry at the point of take-off and throughout the flight path and the return route was found to have been within the ‘permissible limit.’ The recorded conversations between the flight crew show that the last contact with the pilots up to the time of the incident and when they stopped responding lasted 69 seconds, and no emergency declaration was recorded during that time, it added.”
“The military investigators also ruled out any disruption in the communication system or frequency interference with the helicopter. They revealed that during the flight and up to 69 seconds before the crash, contact with the aircraft had been maintained on the specified frequencies. The report further said that there were no signs of any cyberattack carried out against the presidential helicopter.”
What’s lacking from the second one Military document is the radar and black-box data of whether or not within the terminating 69 seconds there used to be a bearing or route trade via Mostafavi on the controls of the president’s airplane. Within the Military’s first document, it used to be claimed “the helicopter has already continued on the predicted path and has not departed from the designated flight path.”
A western army flight skilled refers back to the coaching guide for the Bell 212 fashion of helicopter during which Raisi used to be travelling. This supply says that the technical knowledge the Military may have checked however haven’t begun to expose, come with:
— altitude of the convoy when Mostafavi gave the sequence to climb above the clouds
— pace of the airplane at that month
— route and bearing of the entrance and rear airplane
— report in fact redirection via the Raisi airplane within the ultimate 69 seconds
— altimeter specs within the Bell-212 helicopter
— technical components explaining why Raisi’s airplane didn’t acquire altitude nearest Mostafavi gave the climb sequence to the convoy.
From the geographical coordinates revealed for the accident website online, the altitude at which the accident came about has been estimated at 2,200 metres.
Left, drone symbol above the accident website online. Proper, video from rescuer at field stage which seems to turn the frame of Al-Hashem unclouded of the accident particles.
That is how the observer within the 3rd helicopter, in the back of Raisi’s airplane, described the altitude, cloud and climate statuses: “Esmaeili:..There was fog on the ground, but not in up the air where we were advancing with the helicopters. However, in one small compacted area, there was a small patch of clouds above a cliff. In terms of height, this cloud was at the same height as our flight’s height. It was there that the now-martyred helicopter pilot [Mostafavi], who was also the commander of the fleet, told the rest of the pilots to ascend above the clouds. We were third behind the president’s helicopter. We rose above the clouds and advanced for approximately 30 seconds. Our pilot suddenly realized that the main helicopter carrying the president was missing.”
Esmaeili mentioned the pilot of his airplane estimated that 90 seconds had elapsed between the radio touch of Mostafavi giving the sequence to climb above the cloud attic and the “disappearance”. “…we also have no radio contact with it anymore. So I asked him when was the last time contact was made? The pilot answered, ‘A minute and 30 seconds ago when the pilot [Mostafavi] told us to ascend above the clouds.’”
Esmaeili is particular. It have been Mostafavi who have been on the controls of Raisi’s airplane and who gave the sequence to the others to climb above the cloud.
Esmaeili additionally discoverable the direct testimony of Al-Hashem, who used to be thrown unclouded of the helicopter fuselage on the accident and used to be no longer reached via the hearth which fed on the alternative passengers within the cabin. “After some tries, calling the cellphone of the captain [Mostafavi] accompanying the president, someone picked up the phone. It was Ayatollah Hashem, the Friday Imam of Tabriz. He told us that he was not feeling well. He didn’t tell us anything special. I asked him what exactly had happened. He told us that he didn’t know what had happened, and when asked about his whereabouts, he said that he didn’t know. He only described what he could see, described to us what he saw, for example, how he was surrounded by trees. I asked him about the condition of the others, the Ayatollah replied that he’s alone and couldn’t see anyone else and he’s alone.”
In Esmaeili’s account, he and others have been in a position to talk to Al-Hashem over a three-to-four moment duration. The phone which Al-Hashem responded used to be Mostafavi’s, consistent with Esmaeili.
The western flight supply feedback: “We can be certain that there was no noticeable or alarming acceleration due to increasing throttle, a dive, or both. We have Al-Hashem’s last communications verifying this, as well as 90 seconds of no radio traffic which in an emergency of this kind typically includes cries for help or other chatter identifying a struggle in the cockpit. This makes me wonder if the crew had made a pact.”
“We assume the [Bell] 212 was cruising at 190kph. The final communication with the pilot was 90 seconds before the crash. The math tells me that in those 90 seconds the 212 flew 4,769m horizontally. We don’t know the altitude of the group before the order to climb was given, but we do know the service ceiling of the 212 is 5300m, so there was plenty of capacity to get above the 2200m height of the mountain where the aircraft ended up.”
“The 212 is equipped with a radio altimeter. This equipment generally stops giving height indications at 2500ft/ 762m. We have no evidence [from Al-Hashem] that the altimeter sounded off or that any of the flight crew or passengers heard it before the crash. The altimeter could have been disabled. By the looks of the crash site, the 212 didn’t hit a sheer cliff or steep mountainside, so we can expect that the altimeter would have sounded before collision if it had been working and/or been monitored.”
“Now, the key thing is that the pilot ordered the other two helicopters to climb, while he did not. He flew into the clouds. Did he descend, or just fly into the mountain at 190kph? Did he know that on his current course the altimeter, if it was working, would not sound due to the slope of the terrain until it was too late to change course? The Army says there was no course change during the flight, but did the pilot, instead of descending into the clouds, change course while maintaining altitude after entering the cloud cover, thus hitting the mountain. This would explain the calmness of all on board.”
“The pilot knew exactly what he was doing.”
Uncertainty of pilot suicide in an assassination plot has no longer been reported within the Iranian home media, within the two Military stories, or within the Iranian opposition media out of doors the rustic. Nor has it surfaced within the Russian army blogs.
There seems to had been negative doubt of the 2 pilots, Mostafavi and Colonel Mohsen Daryanosh, within the first days nearest the incident when their households and houses have been visited via Brigadier Normal Hamid Vahedi, the Iranian Breeze Power commander, and Brigadier Normal Massoud Jafari, commander of Shahid Lashgari Breeze Bottom.
Supply: https://www.presstv.ir/
How and why Mostafavi gave his private phone to Ayatollah Al-Hashem ahead of the gliding started is an unanswered query. Within the cases now, so too is the query of what proof Mostafavi left on his phone, if any.