Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Texas

The NASCAR Cup Collection heads to the Lone Star State on Sunday, this time traversing the excessive banks of the Texas Motor Speedway within the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. 

Texas is popping right into a race that is tougher and tougher to foretell, however that does not imply we cannot attempt. 

Listed below are three drivers to observe — a favourite, a contender and a darkish horse — in addition to a driver you will need to keep away from betting on or placing in your fantasy lineup. 

Favourite: Kyle Larson (+350, per DraftKings as of Friday)

Larson is the winner of the Cup Collection’ solely race on a conventional 1.5-mile monitor in 2024, dominating at Las Vegas for his solely win this season. 

He is aware of methods to get round Texas, as he did win at TMS within the fall of 2021 and likewise gained the All-Star Race on the similar monitor earlier within the season. 

Final fall, he was as soon as once more in competition earlier than a late crash despatched him into the surface wall, ending his day. If he can keep away from the SAFER barrier Sunday, he is a great guess to roll into victory lane as soon as once more. 

Contender: William Byron (+600)

Not one to be outdone by his HMS teammate, Byron has proved to be the most effective driver within the Cup Collection in 2024, boasting three wins within the first eight races, together with final Sunday’s race at Martinsville. 

Byron has scored essentially the most wins (11) of any driver because the Subsequent-Gen automotive was launched in 2022 and is tied for the sequence lead in top-10 finishes this season. 

Byron is the defending winner at Texas, beating out Bubba Wallace and the remainder of the sphere on a late restart final fall. If it comes right down to crunch time Sunday and Byron is within the combine, do not be shocked if he pulls a rabbit out of his outsized hat and scores his fourth win of the season. 

Darkish horse: Bubba Wallace (+1200)

Wallace, who got here near profitable at Texas final September, falls into our dark-horse class for the second week in a row.

At a monitor the place passing might be troublesome and qualifying might be key, Wallace comes into the weekend because the defending pole winner at Texas. He additionally has a earlier win at a 1.5-mile monitor (Kansas, September 2022), and Toyota has been constantly quick at venues just like Texas over the previous couple seasons.

Wallace might be trying to avenge his 2023 defeat on the monitor, and so long as a mechanical failure does not take him out, he is a great guess for a top-10 end and perhaps that elusive victory that may lock him into the playoffs. 

Keep away from: Chris Buescher (+2800)

Buescher’s odds could seem a little bit lengthy, particularly contemplating the Prosper, Texas native notched three wins and made the Spherical of 8 simply final season. 

Nevertheless, one have a look at the stat sheet and a really telling quantity jumps out at you: Within the 14 NASCAR Cup Collection races that Buescher has began at his dwelling monitor, he has zero top-10 finishes.

At a monitor the place Jack Roush’s Fords used to dominate, Buescher’s finest end at Texas in his 5 begins for Roush is simply 14th final fall, and he is led a grand complete of two laps on the 1.5-mile oval within the 4,459 laps he has accomplished there. 

There could also be hope in qualifying, as Buescher sat on the entrance row final fall, however do not count on a heat homecoming on raceday — Texas has by no means regarded fondly upon its native son.