The Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) is searching for the votes of Muslims in India’s northeastern state of Assam forward of the final elections. This can be a drastic reversal of its place; solely a 12 months in the past, BJP leaders had exuberantly introduced that they don’t require votes from the neighborhood.
The courting of Muslim voters is especially seen in Nagaon, which is among the three Muslim-majority parliamentary constituencies in Assam. The state accounts for 14 of the 543 contested seats within the Lok Sabha, India’s decrease home of parliament.
In 2019, the BJP gained 9 seats in Assam. It has now set a goal of profitable 11 seats.
Its probabilities of profitable within the different two Muslim-majority constituencies – Dhubri and Karimganj – are slim because the electoral contest there’s primarily between the Congress and the All India United Democratic Entrance (AIUDF).
Final 12 months, Assam’s BJP Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had proclaimed that the get together would by no means search votes from the “Miya,” or the Bengal-origin Muslims residing in riverine islands. The Miya neighborhood is one in every of three Muslim teams within the state, the opposite two being the indigenous Assamese Muslims and the Hindi-speaking Muslims. Collectively, Muslims make up greater than 34 p.c of the state’s inhabitants, with the Bengal-origin neighborhood constituting the biggest chunk.
Sarma’s assertion got here within the backdrop of the BJP’s fervent efforts to drive a wedge between the Bengal-origin Muslims and the remainder of the populace within the state.
Final 12 months, the Assam authorities additionally resolved to hold out a census of the Assamese Muslims to unveil particular social and financial insurance policies for the neighborhood. This coupled with the BJP’s dedication to implement the identification and deportation of international nationals from Assam contributed to the speedy growth of the get together’s help base within the state. Assam’s indigenous communities are extraordinarily involved over the growing numbers of Bengal-origin Muslims within the state.
Nagaon has a historical past of returning candidates from each the BJP and the Congress. In 2019, Congress’ Pradyut Bordoloi gained the seat, defeating the BJP’s Rupak Sarmah by a margin of about 17,000 votes.
Just like different constituencies within the state, Nagaon’s electoral equations have modified after the delimitation of meeting and parliamentary seats accomplished final 12 months that had been pending for over twenty years. Some meeting seats in Nagaon akin to Hojai and Lumding, which had a lot of Bengal-origin Hindu voters and had been bastions of the BJP, have been hooked up to the contiguous Kaziranga parliamentary constituency. And a few seats from the previous Kaliabor seat with an awesome majority of Bengal-origin Muslim voters have now been tagged with Nagaon.
At present, there are about 1.1 million Muslim voters in Nagaon, together with 20,000 Assamese Muslims. Hindus comprise solely about 650,000 voters.
Within the context of the BJP’s weakened place in Nagaon, the get together accelerated efforts to woo the help of all communities there. Its efforts paid off; 1000’s of Muslims joined the Hindu nationalist get together.
A BJP functionary estimated that greater than 40,000 Muslims have joined the BJP from Dhing, Lahorighat, and Samaguri in Nagaon, that are inhabited principally by Bengal-origin Muslims. On April 3, some native information portals revealed a narrative claiming that Mufti Rashidul Haque Qasimi, the Nagaon president of the Ulema Council, had additionally joined the BJP.
Duina Barbaruah, spokesperson of the BJP in Assam, confirmed that Muslims have joined the get together in “giant numbers” within the state. “The reason being the BJP’s emphasis on improvement and nationwide progress,” she advised The Diplomat.
So why are Bengal-origin Muslims becoming a member of the BJP in droves? They’re apprehensive of being tagged as unlawful immigrants, and are hoping that they are going to get assist from BJP functionaries if the necessity arises.
The pattern started quickly after the BJP swept to energy within the state meeting elections of 2016. There have been reviews quoting senior BJP leaders that 400,000 Muslims in Assam expressed curiosity in major membership within the get together in 2017.
The pattern appears to have intensified with the approaching basic elections and reviews that the BJP will win a 3rd time period in energy.
There’s a widespread perception amongst giant sections of the indigenous communities {that a} sizeable variety of Bengal-origin Muslims had managed to enroll their names within the Nationwide Register of Residents (NRC) via fraudulent means and pretend paperwork, whereas many amongst them prevented the method altogether, fearing that they’d be deported to Bangladesh. The BJP shrewdly capitalized on these anxieties, promising to plug the loopholes within the identification of unlawful immigrants in Assam the place different events had failed.
The Congress faces a troublesome problem in Nagaon this time round, with the AIDUF fielding its legislator, Aminul Islam. The AIDUF has a powerful help base amongst Bengal-origin Muslims. The BJP’s prospects would brighten provided that there’s a cut up within the Muslim votes and if a bit of the neighborhood votes for the get together.
The final elections have modified the BJP’s stance because the goal is to win 11 seats in Assam. Sarma may even need to show to the excessive command that the get together has made speedy progress within the state beneath his management.
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